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李    沫¹ , 李梦迪¹ , 郭朝辉¹ , 郭志新²

 

(1. 河北省建筑科学研究院有限公司 , 石家庄   050227; 2. 衡水市不动产登记服务中心 , 衡水    053000)

摘  要: 为研究既有公共建筑运行阶段碳排放特征及影响因素 , 支撑制定区域碳减排策略 。以邯郸市为例 ,采集 2002—2021 年公共建筑面积与能源消耗数据 , 分析碳排放特征 , 构建包含人口 、第三产业增加值 、碳排放量和碳排放强度因子的 STIRPAT 扩展模型 , 采用线性回归与岭回归方法解析各因素对碳排放的作用机制 。研究表明 : 公建电力碳排放强度在 0. 0037~0. 0425 万 t/万 m2 之间波动且逐渐超过煤炭成为公建碳排放主要来源 ; 建筑运行碳排放总量与电力碳排放量 、第三产业增加值 、城镇人口呈显著正相关 , 其中电力碳排放量弹性系数达0. 33 (P<0. 001) , 贡献率超过其他因素总和 。模型通过岭回归分析验证模型稳定性 , 当取 K = 0. 166 时 , 有效缓解了多重共线性问题 , F 检验的显著性 P<0. 001, 表明水平上呈现显著性。

关键词: 公共建筑 ; 碳排放 ; STIRPAT 模型 ; 影响因素

中图分类号: X322      文献标志码: A      文章编号: 1005-8249 (2026) 04-0162-07

DOI:10. 19860/j. cnki. issn1005-8249. 2026. 04. 024

 

Research on Factors Influencing Operational Carbon Emissions in Existing Public Buildings

LI Mo¹ , LI Mengdi¹ , GUO Zhaohui¹ , GUO Zhixin²

(1. Hebei Academy of Building Research, Shijiazhuang 050227, China;

2. Hengshui Municipal Real Estate Registration Service Center, Hengshui 053000, China)

Abstract : To investigate the carbon emission characteristics and influencing factors during operational phase of existing public buildings and support regional carbon reduction strategies, this study collected public building area and energy consumption data in Handan City from 2002 to 2021.  Through carbon emission analysis and construction of an extended STIRPAT model incorporating population, tertiary industry added value, carbon emission quantity, and intensity factors, linear regression and ridge regression methods were employed to examine driving mechanisms. Results demonstrate that : 1) Electricity-related carbon emission intensity fluctuated between 0. 0037 - 0. 0425 million tons/10, 000 m2 , gradually surpassing coal as the primary emission source.  2 )  Total operational carbon emissions showed significant positive correlations with electricity emissions (elasticity coefficient 0. 33, P<0. 001) , tertiary industry development, and urban population, with electricity contributing over 50% of total emission growth.  Ridge regression analysis with K= 0. 166 effectively resolved multicollinearity issues, while F-test significance (P<0. 001) confirmed model reliability.  The findings provide quantitative evidence for optimizing energy structure and formulating differentiated emission control policies in public building operations.

Key words: existing public buildings; operational carbon emissions; STIRPAT model; factors