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苗元亮 ，张书坤 ，孟   超

 

（山东水总有限公司 ，济南 250014)

摘   要 ：为准确掌握特殊型古滑坡的肇灾演化流程及稳定状态 ，基于古滑坡所处地质条件及基本特征 ，开展其肇灾影响因素分析和演化过程分析 ；以滑坡变形监测数据为基础 ，在剔除滑坡变形数据中随机噪声的基础上 ，通过尖点突变分析和多重分形去趋势波动分析分别开展滑坡稳定性现状评价及发展趋势评价。结果表明：古滑坡肇灾影响因素较为完备 ，其演化过程主要包括古滑坡前期形成期及临近复活期 ，演化过程阶段较为清晰；同时 ，通过尖点突变分析 ，各监测点的突变特征值均大于 0 ,  滑坡现状稳定性均属稳定状态 ；多重分形去趋势波动分析结果显示 ，各监测点的传统 Hurst 指数均大于 0. 5 ,  说明滑坡累计变形仍会进一步增加 ，稳定性均趋于不利方向发展 ，应尽快开展滑坡防治。研究成果可为类似工程提供参考与借鉴。

关键词：古滑坡 ；肇灾影响因素 ；肇灾演化流程 ；稳定性评价 ；发展趋势

中图分类号：P642           

文献标志码：A          

 文章编号： 1005- 8249   (2025)  04- 0084- 06

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2025 .04.016

 

MIAO Yuanliang ,  ZHANG Shukun ,  MENG Chao

(Shandong Water Conservancy Group Co . ,   Ltd. ,  Ji ’nan 250014 ,   China)

Abstract :  To accurately grasp the disaster initiation and evolution process and stable state of special ancient landslides , based on the  geological  conditions  and basic characteristics of  the ancient  landslides ,  carry out analysis of  their  disaster initiation influencing factors  and  evolution  process; Based  on  landslide  deformation  monitoring  data ,  after  removing  random  noise  from landslide deformation data , the stability status evaluation and development trend evaluation of landslides are carried out through sharp point mutation analysis and multifractal trend fluctuation analysis , respectively. The  results  indicate  that  the  influencing factors of ancient landslides are relatively complete , and their evolution process  mainly includes  the early formation period and the  near  revival  period  of ancient  landslides ,  with clear  stages of  the evolution  process; Meanwhile ,  through  sharp  point mutation analysis , the mutation characteristic values of each monitoring point are all greater than 0 , indicating that the stability of the landslide  is  in  a  stable state; The  results of  multifractal  detrended  fluctuation analysis show  that the traditional Hurst exponent of each monitoring point is greater than 0. 5 , indicating that the cumulative deformation of the landslide will continue to increase and the stability will tend to develop in an unfavorable direction. Therefore , landslide prevention and control  should be carried out as soon as possible . The  research  results can provide reference and inspiration for similar projects .

Key  words : ancient landslide;  impact factors  of disaster;  disaster causing  evolution process;  stability evaluation; development trend

作者简介： 苗元亮  (1977—) ,  男 ，本科 ，研究员 ，研究方向：地基与基础处理技术 、水利工程加固技术。

收稿日期：2023 - 07 - 13